US Presidential Election Update: Who is Favored to Win in 2020?
Assuming it is not postponed, the United States Presidential Election is approaching this year. The election is set to take place on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020, although this could yet change. However, we are going to attempt to delve into who has a better chance to win the election in 2020 as things stand today.
Traditional News May Not Be the Best Indicator
The fact is that over ninety-percent of the United States national media, along with a vast majority of the international media, was dead wrong when making their predictions of who would win the 2016 US Presidential Election. Because of this, many people are getting their news from non-traditional sources when trying to get a more accurate picture of who may actually have the best shot of winning the next Presidential Election.
In addition to political news publications, people are also getting information on the favorites from a variety of sources online. For example, expert oddsmakers are constantly updating their websites to help those brave bettors place their best bets on who will win the race as well. The popularity of the idea of informational privacy means that more and more people seem to be bucking traditional news to go online. Voters seem to want to privately be able to make up their own minds.
The New York Times infamously predicted that Hillary Clinton had an 85% chance of winning the 2016 US Presidential Election on the day the election took place. Two days after the election, they published an article titled “How Data Failed Us in Calling an Election.” However, the New York Times was not the only media organization that got it wrong. Almost every single media outlet around the world gave Donald Trump absolutely no chance to win. Yet, Donald Trump didn’t only win, he dominated the election when it came to the Electoral College.
Donald Trump received 304 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 227 in 2016. This means he effectively won the election in a landslide. When you examine the electoral college’s map of US states, you can see that President Trump won a vast majority of “swing states” and controlled a great portion of the map. Swing states, or battleground states, are states that are widely considered to be “up for grabs” by either a Republican (Trump) or Democrat (Clinton) candidate. All this means that the traditional news media was not only wrong, but they were also nowhere close to making an accurate prediction.
Will things repeat themselves this time around? Let’s explore that below.
The 2020 Democratic Primary
The 2020 Democratic Primary determines which candidate will run against President Donald Trump for the Presidency in 2020. The race has come down to two candidates. Those candidates are Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware. The New York Times has reported that Bernie Sanders will attend the next Democrat Party debate against Joe Biden. However, his path to victory has significantly dwindled. Biden won 10 out of 14 states on Super Tuesday, a major contest for all potential candidates.
That being said, a large percentage of the delegates have yet to be awarded by the Democrat voters. Bernie Sanders technically has a chance to win. However, he simply not won enough states that far to make that a realistic potential outcome.
The other factor that comes into play with the Democrat Party primary is the presence of super-delegates. These are people who are not elected by the voters. They represent 775 “votes” for the Democrat candidates. Many voters who are familiar with the way things work have voiced frustration about super-delegates because they are often lobbyists and people who have other interests in mind when selecting their candidate.
Because they are not voted on by the people, it can be almost impossible for an “outsider” to win in the Democrat Party in the United States. Generally, the candidates who win the Primary and go on to run in the general election against a Republican candidate are effectively “in bed” with big business and many of the things that most Democrat voters rally against.
In fact, some voters believe that the election is effectively “rigged” against Bernie Sanders because he is not an “establishment” candidate. He often speaks harshly about big banks, for example.
Some voters were disillusioned when Senator Sanders went on to formally endorse Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election because they feel he “sold out.” Now, although he may not have a real chance to win, he has a better chance to win now than he did in 2016.
All things considered, we do not see a clear path to victory for Bernie Sanders. The one thing that some analysts are starting to speak about, however, is the possibility of a “Brokered Convention” on the Democrat side of things.
This is possible when no candidate receives at least 1,991 delegates in total from the voters of all 50 states. Different states, based on their size, award a different amount of delegates.
If no one receives 1,991 delegates, believe it or not, a candidate that no voter actually voted for during the multi-year Democrat Primary process can essentially step in out of “nowhere” and suddenly become the party’s official candidate at the Democrat Convention.
It is something that has almost never happened, but with the year we have had already in 2020, anything is possible.
At this point, however, we assume Joe Biden will be the candidate.
Does Joe Biden Have a Chance Against President Trump?
According to a variety of national polls, President Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden both nationally and in many key states. This is, however, no different than how things looked in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
Some people noted that the polls in 2016 were heavily slanted towards polling a population of Democrat voters. This means that in their methodology they would admit to polling 25% more registered Democrats than Republicans, which would obviously end up skewing the poll results.
In any case, it all may come down to what happens with the current situation. If people think that President Trump handles this situation well, he may win by even more of a wide margin than he did in 2016, no matter what the media’s polls say.
If the average person thinks that he has not handled the situation well, as almost every news channel would have you believe currently, then he may have a tough time winning those “swing states” again in 2020. Those battleground states include states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida.
There have been some unusual events occurring recently that may benefit President Trump, however. Recently, a popular CNN commentator named Dana Bash came out and complimented President Trump in a very public manner for the first time in years. She said President Trump “is being the kind of leader that people need.” Democrats were furious as CNN has been systematically complaining about everything President Trump does for four years.
We believe the election will be determined in the next few months. At this point, anything is possible.